Thoughts

Winning the war with collaboration

This is sort of the flip side to my post from yesterday – The case against globalism.

Recently listened to a professor from Hillsdale College, Victor Davis Hanson.

He discusses many things but one of his key subjects is WWII and how it was won and lost. One of the points he makes is that, the US and British won because they collaborated. Germany didn’t collaborate with Japan.

This is where globalism has it’s point that makes sense. Say I make a really great laptop. It’s amazing, it’s fast but the screen isn’t the best. But in Japan they make the best one. Certainly through collaboration, one could make the best laptop.

I think for the sake of business, collaboration between companies, even competing companies is the difference between those that will win amongst those not collaborating.

My example would be say Ford and GM to compete with Tesla. That example may not be the best for many reasons, one being many auto companies work together in different partnerships. In the case of beating Tesla, Ford, GM, FCA would need to come together and make a complete electric push to beat Tesla’s technological gains at this point. That is where the collaboration would work and possibly win.

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Thoughts

Tesla taxi?

I watched the most recent video posted by Tesla about “Autonomy Day.”

Let me say, this day I knew was coming. I just didn’t think this was happening in the next year.

What Tesla announced is truly revolutionary. They are going to turn all their Model 3 cars into Ubers basically. All expired leases on Model 3’s, once turned in, go into a pool of “Tesla Taxis.” You will use an app like Uber and order a driverless car to pick you up and take you where you want to go.

This will change the world. I question the future of the big manufactures after this. Many consumers will no longer need a vehicle and just rent a Tesla when they need it. This is amazing.

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Thoughts

Why UBI and AI are fantasies

For those who don’t know UBI is Universal Basic Income and AI is Artificial intelligence.

Now that we have covered that, I’ll explain why they are fantasies.

I could write a book on why this is for the both of them. I’ll do my best to keep this short.

For UBI, I feel like it’s simple. It’s basically adding a 1,000 price increase on many products. I’ll explain why in a second. The common thought is that everyone in the US would get say $1,000 a month from the government because most menial jobs would be taken over by AI in the near future, less than 10 years. This would include, taxi drivers, semi, food staff to name a few.

The problem is, this is basic economics, if you give everyone $1,000 of free money, the cost of goods will go up because those with a job still will have more money to spend. Which yes, it could in the short term cause a boost in the economy but long term create hyper inflation. Which makes things worse then, if you didn’t give anyone any money at all. Now, the ones without jobs have to spend more to get further.

UBI as a whole is solving a problem we don’t have. Yes the US does have homeless, people that are having a hard time getting by, and less home ownership. BUT… giving free money doesn’t fix this. It’s like giving a kid candy every time they cry instead of solving why they’re crying in the first place.

Which brings me to AI. No AI will not take over the world and we won’t all be out of our jobs. Though I do believe it will revolutionize the world and make all our lives better and worse. Yes this is my opinion, I can’t prove all this but from everything I’ve seen and read, I don’t believe in AI. It will always be a small fragment of how the human mind works. It will never have the full functionality of human thought. Sure it can “learn” but to what understanding? That’s the key here.

Most AI I’ve seen works with templates, it expects a certain type of data, in a certain format, with little wiggle room. When it gets the wrong stuff, it doesn’t understand and can’t figure things out on it’s own. AI at best in it’s current place is a self adjusting program with minimal abilities to stretch beyond it’s core function. There is a reason we don’t have self driving cars yet. Sure there are some attempts that are promising. Yeah, looking at you Tesla. The reason why it isn’t here yet isn’t because we don’t have the best people working on it. It’s because there are billions, if not trillions of variables when driving. Not to mention there are hardware limitations that haven’t been solved.

I’ll use an example, say it snows so much in a period of 1 hour that the roads are not drive-able. It’s a freak storm and no one really saw it coming. You’re on the interstate. What does the AI do in that environment? Pull over? If it can’t get traction and it doesn’t have the ability to maintain a straight path, what then? This is under the assumption the driver can’t take over as it’s supposed to be a completely AI driven car. I don’t believe AI in my life time will ever be able to figure that problem out. I don’t care what all the car companies say.

Google fed an AI system they built the entire internet and it concluded the internet was a cat pretty much. Granted this was a few years ago but things haven’t evolved that much.

I think AI will have it’s place. I think it will changes so many things. Yes people will lose there jobs. But I do believe for the better. I don’t believe we will see a massive loss in jobs. I do believe it will be a slow drain of jobs in certain sectors. We won’t all lose our jobs though. Far from it. And what I will say till the day I die, we will see a massive increase in jobs because of it long term.

This is the norm for all major industrial revolutions. When the automobile came out; everyone thought, “what will happen to all the coachmen? (
carriage drivers) And yet it eventually spurred the taxi industry. It brought in mechanics. Factory jobs to build the automobiles.

The argument that this time it’s different is the same as saying in 1999, this time it’s a different new year and we will all die because the computers don’t understand rolling forward to 2000 (y2k insanity.) It’s no different from then and now. What will likely happen is create a market for jobs to create more AI, build off current systems (which we are already seeing), micro marketplaces from it, and in the cases of robots – mechanics and engineers that help design better robots.

The only reason these industries are isolated to a few people is because they are still young yet. There isn’t 100 years of AI and Robot companies in place. It will spread in time. Which creates more jobs.

All UBI is, a false promise to the poor and guaranteed way to kill the economy long term. AI is the reason to allow such a thing. AI itself is fear mongered to the point of exhaustion. When a program can write it’s own code and write it better than a team of humans could, that is when AI has a chance to really take over the world. That is only when I’ll worry about it. You shouldn’t either. If anything embrace it and find ways to get AI in your business or life.

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